從行為經濟學看台灣不動產市場： 羅伯特．席勒教授來台演講之省思與啟示Examining the Taiwanese Real Estate Market from Behavioral Economics: Reflections and Implications from Professor Robert J. Shiller’s Speech in Taiwan

台灣不動產市場發展已難單從傳統經濟學假設人類理性思考來出發解釋。去年(2017)受邀來台主講亞洲及世界華人不動產學會聯合學術研討會的2013年諾貝爾經濟學獎的羅伯特．席勒(Robert J. Shiller)教授，以對資產訂價研究的卓越貢獻而得獎，對於歐美及亞洲主要國家的長期不動產市場趨勢有深入的分析，他對於不動產市場研究的貢獻不僅是提出Case-Shiller房價指數及週期調整本益比(Shiller’s CAPE Ratio)供市場投資者衡量美國住宅價值變動情形及評估權益證券投資風險，其過去數本經典著作的核心論述，更可從行為經濟學觀點解釋在基本面因素以外，不動產市場是如何受到擁有資訊者的操弄、消費者對價格的預期以及人類基於本能所採取的行動之影響。本文從席勒教授近期與不動產市場相關的著作與論述，探討台灣不動產市場近年榮景下的隱憂與課題，期能從中獲得啟示。

The development of Taiwan’s real estate market has been difficult to explain from the assumption of human rational thinking in traditional economics. Professor Robert J. Shiller,who received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economics for his outstanding contributions to the asset pricing research, conducted an in-depth analysis of long-term housing market trends in major countries in Europe, Asia, and the United States. His contribution to the housing market researches is not only to present the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index and the Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE Ratio) for market investors to measure the changes in the value of housing in the United States and to evaluate the risks of equity investments, but also explain how the housing market is influenced by the manipulation of participants who hold the information, the consumer’s price expectation, and the action taken by human beings based on their instincts beyond the fundamentals from the perspectives of behavioral economics.
This paper discusses the issues and concerns of the real estate market in Taiwan in recent years from Professor Shiller’s recent books and articles. We hope to obtain implications from these discussions.