台灣家戶住宅面積需求變化： 條件分配觀點之分析Housing Space Demand Changes of Taiwan’s Households: Analysis of the Conditional Distribution Aspects

以台灣資料為對象的住宅需求相關文獻並不少，但是大多關注住宅支出與租擁選擇，對於住宅面積的討論有限；相關分析多為平均趨勢，分配觀點的討論相對缺乏。本研究採用1985至2005年台灣家庭收支調查個體資料，透過分量迴歸與均數迴歸的比較，討論台灣家戶人均住宅坪數需求行為，及其在經濟成長過程的演進。在考量所得和價格內生性及租擁選擇性之下，發現人均住宅坪數需求受到所得、房價、家戶人口與經濟特性的顯著影響，並且在條件分配區間展現明顯的異質性；此異質性也隨經濟發展程度而有不同。本研究以分量迴歸估計住宅人均面積需求函數，強調平均趨勢觀點的不足，並由此引申政策建議，對住宅需求文獻有所補充。

關鍵詞：住宅需求、住宅面積、分配觀點、分量迴歸、經濟發展、人均住宅坪數

There is no lack of studies on housing demand using Taiwanese data. Most studies, however, focus on housing expenditure and tenure choice. Less attention has been paid to the analysis of the demand for housing space. Furthermore, most existing studies tend to be based on conditional mean regressions while conditional distribution investigations are fairly limited. This study employs household survey micro data to discuss the housing space demand behavior of Taiwanese households over the period from 1985 to 2005. By accounting for income and price endogeneities and tenure choice selectivity, the regression results suggest that per capita housing space demand is significantly determined by income, the housing price, household size and location attributes. The marginal effects of the covariates estimated from the quantile regression demonstrate the existence of heterogeneities across the conditional distribution as well as the process of economic development. By applying quantile regression to the demand for housing space, this study provides complementary evidence on the housing demand literature and derives insightful policy suggestions.

Key words: housing demand, housing space, distributional aspect, quantile regression, economic development, per capita housing space