情緒會影響房市嗎？指數編制與驗證Will Sentiment Influence the Housing Market? Index Compilation and Verification

經濟理論假設人是理性，但實際市場上卻充滿非理性投資者所造成的異常現象，本研究檢驗情緒是否會影響不動產市場。我們編制了不同的不動產市場情緒指標，包括使用直接法(透過問卷調查)編制了當前與未來情緒指標，以及透過影響房市的基本因素來編制兩種間接情緒指標，據以驗證情緒是否對價格決定(房價)、進場買賣(交易量)、決策時間(流動天數)，以及折讓能力(議價空間)有影響。本研究發現情緒對房市具有統計上顯著的影響，情緒對市場的影響，不僅是在價格上(房價與議價空間)，對交易量與流動性之影響也相當顯著。
關鍵詞：情緒指數、房價、交易量、流動天數、議價空間

Traditional economics assumes rational investors, whereas markets are full of irrational investors. The abnormal phenomena in asset markets may stem from irrational investors’ sentiment. This study examines whether investor sentiment influences the real estate market, transaction prices, trading volumes, time on the market and price concessions. We compile different sentiment indicators, including the direct methods (through questionnaires) producing current and future sentiment indicators, and the indirect methods (through proxies in the real estate market). This study finds that sentiment has statistically significant effects on the real estate market. The impact of sentiment is not only on the price (transaction prices and price concessions) but also on the trading volumes and liquidity.
Key words: sentiment index, housing price, trading volume, time on the market, price concession