不動產估價師理性行為之探討Are Appraisers Rational?

金融海嘯席捲世界造成重大傷害，突顯出經濟景氣循環中繁榮階段的過度樂觀與泡沫化，其似乎隱現投資人具動物本性，有追高助跌的行為，也引發對估價平滑評判的再省思。過去探討估價平滑之相關文獻多以總體資料切入，並將該現象歸因於估價師不能確實掌握市場變動，而直接尋求去平滑的方法。本文有別於過去多數相關研究，改由個別估價資料進行觀察，以T-REITs重新估價案例為對象，依循Quan & Quigley(1991)部分調整模型之理念，以迴歸分析衡量估值與當期市場價格和前期估值之關係，判斷部分調整的程度；並藉由信心函數的建立，進一步觀察部分調整行為是否理性。實證結果顯示，市場噪音越大，估價師賦予市場資訊的權重越小，驗證估價師確有部分調整行為且應屬理性行為。
關鍵詞：部分調整、估價師行為、不動產證券化、估價平滑

Previous studies defined appraisal smoothing as reduced volatility or the lag structure of the appraisal-based index as compared to the transaction-based index. Most of these studies examined data at an aggregate level and used extensive data sets in order to de-smooth the appraisal-based index. This paper aims to observe smoothing behavior among appraisers in Taiwan. It uses the re-appraisal data of T-REITs and modifies the partial adjustment model, developed by Quan & Quigley(1991), to observe smoothing issues. The results show that partial adjustments have existed and that T-REITs appraisers attach less weights to market information because of market noise.
Key words: partial adjustment, appraisal behavior, REITs, smoothing