台灣地區男性出生世代對住宅租擁選擇與 住宅消費之影響—兼論住宅消費的世代公平性The Effect of the Male Birth Cohort on Housing Tenure Choice and Housing Consumption in Taiwan

本研究分析男性出生世代、年齡與普查年對於擁屋機率與每人平均居住面積的影響，使用1980、1990及2000年三個普查年的資料進行估計。這是台灣住宅研究首次考慮到出生世代的影響。本研究發現愈早出生的世代擁屋機率愈高，每人居住面積也較大，這反映了台灣土地資源稀少房價高，先出生者有先佔的優勢。本研究也顯示1970年以後出生的年輕世代，擁屋機率大幅下降，每人居住面積也明顯下降，此種年輕世代在居住品質上的世代不公平性是值得注意的政策問題。在研究方法上，我們發現將權屬選擇與居住面積聯立估計是很重要的，除了發現住宅權屬對居住面積有負的影響外，對於其他變數也會有影響。尤其是在分析居住面積時，將住宅權屬以內生方式納入會對普查年、年齡、出生年的估計結果造成很大的差異。
關鍵詞：住宅權屬選擇、住宅消費、出生世代分析、probit模型、世代公平性

The effect of the male birth cohort on housing tenure choice and housing consumption in Taiwan is examined in this research, using census data for 1980, 1990 and 2000. We find that the earlier a man is born, the higher the probability that he is a home-owner, all other things being equal. The result for housing consumption is similar in the sense that the earlier birth cohort will have occupied a larger floor space. This finding reflects the fact that the highly scarce land resources have resulted in the rapid growth of real estate prices in Taiwan. The earlier cohorts have hence enjoyed the advantages of the preemption of land. This finding reflects an intergenerational inequity issue that merits careful consideration. We also find that it is important to estimate the tenure choice model and living space model simultaneously, as it gives rise to important differences in the results.
Key words: housing tenure choice, housing consumption, cohort analysis, probit model,
intergenerational equity