自動估價系統對不動產估價師之潛在衝擊分析Potential Impacts of AVMs on Real Estate Appraisers

自動估價系統(Automated Valuation Models system, AVMs)結合大量估價原理與電腦輔助技術自動進行不動產估價，具有客觀、省時、成本低廉等功能，其發展對於國內剛起步的不動產估價師制度的衝擊為何？本文發現資料的數量與品質是國內在AVMs開發過程中的一大限制，而就不動產估價師公會所列舉的22項估價業務來看，僅有金融機構不動產擔保品估價與法院拍賣不動產之估價等兩項業務屬於AVMs替代性較高的業務，但從問卷結果來看，有高達56.6%的估價師認為AVMs會減少現有業務，且上述兩項業務所佔的平均比重分別高達18.4%、35.3%，為所有營業項目金額比重最高之二項，據此推估AVMs最高可能會造成估價師業務減少37.6%，對估價業的潛在威脅可說相當大。此外，透過Logistic模型分析顯示，不動產估價師中以對CAMA、AVMs具有認知、認同迴歸估價方法、以及年齡45歲以下者對AVMs的負面衝擊較為顯著，其對AVMs擔憂的情況要分別比其他估價師高249%、336%、252%。
關鍵詞：不動產估價、不動產估價師、自動估價系統、新巴塞爾協定

AVMs (Automated Valuation Models) integrate mass appraisal principles and computer assisted techniques that can appraise real estate prices automatically, and have the advantages of being objective, quick, and low in cost. We find that the techniques used in developing AVMs are relatively easy to overcome, but how to obtain adequate real estate transactions data remains a big problem. Of the twenty-two business items used by appraisers, only appraisals of collateral for mortgage loans and appraisals for real estate auctions executed by the courts have a higher degree of substitution by AVMs. According to the questionnaire used, 56.6 percent of appraisers argued that AVMs would have a negative impact on their revenue, and the average shares of the above two items were found to be 18.4 percent and 35.3 percent, respectively, which may  potentially reduce the appraisers’ revenue by a maximum of 37.6%. Besides, from the results of the logistic model, the negative impacts of AVMs on appraisers are especially significant for appraisers who have a basic understanding of CAMA or AVMs, regard regression analysis as a useful appraisal method, and are below the age of 45. Their odd ratios are 2.49, 3.36 and 2.52 times higher than those of other appraisers, respectively.
Key words: real estate appraisal, real estate appraisers, AVMs, Basel II