不同空間、時間住宅租金與其房價關聯性之研究— 台北地區之實證現象分析The Dynamic Relationship of Rents and Prices among Taipei Housing Spatial Submarkets

房地產市場過去長期的不景氣使得家戶對住宅的投資性需求減弱，造成月租金乘數(房價／月租金)偏高的房價波動減緩，但月租金乘數並未因此而下降，台北地區的月租金乘數平均為345，呈現穩定但偏高的現象。考量因權屬不同，導致住宅所提供的服務品質有所差異的情況下，出租與自有住宅的使用價值產生落差，因此無法縮小租金與房價之間的差距。分析租金與房價互相影響的程度，發現兩者彼此影響的程度減弱，且房價變動對租金的影響明顯高於租金變動對房價的影響，表示房價除了受租金影響外，其它變數亦佔有重要的影響地位，房價與租金兩者的關聯性不若理論或經驗上來的直接密切。進一步分析房價與租金的時間關係，兩者存在長期的均衡關係，台北市房價具有領先台北縣房價的現象。房價與租金間無明顯的因果關係，此與過去認為房價領先租金的說法不同，兩次市場可能因市場區隔而使價格偏離，租買選擇並非同時考慮之行為，因而減弱住宅次市場間互相調整替代的功能。
關鍵詞：租金、房價、租金乘數、時間序列

The long-term Taiwan real estate market depression has been reducing households’investment demand and slowing down the housing price which determines mainly the monthly rent multiplier, but the monthly rent multiplier still reaches to 345 and does not drop significantly.Due to the different housing service qualities of tenure states which determine the use values, the gap of housing rent and price can not shrink. This paper finds that the degree of interaction of rents and prices has lessened, and the impact of prices change on rents is obviously higher than the vice versa. This means not only the rents, but also some other key variables influence the change of prices. Considering the dynamic relationship, we find that there is a long-term equilibrium between rents and prices and the price of Taipei city moves ahead that of Taipei county. Besides, there is no obvious causality between prices and rents.Such evidence indicates that the disparity of rents and prices is caused by market segments of tenure states which weaken the substitution of both submarkets.
Key words: rent, house price, rent multiplier, time series