租買選擇、貸款選擇、與世代組成：巢式LOGIT模型之應用Tenure Choice, Mortgage Payment, and Household Composition of Generation: An Application of Nested Logit Model

租買買揮和家庭組成都是影響住宅需求的主要考慮若一個家庭決定買擇購屋,則是否需要貨貸,貸貨多少,是另外一個必须同時决定的考量雖然國内已有相關文献分別探討租買速擇、款需求與世代组成對住宅需求的影響,但爱限於資料,这些文献一直都缺之對上述道三個因因交互影響的聯合分析本研究主要目的,是採用1996年台台的家計收支调查資料,利用幾個個同層次的logit模型型同時分析這三個因素對住宅需求的交互影響關係。本文文採用條件式1ogit模型型多項式1ogit模型型行估計,然後再利用Hausman檢定定測站过二二模型的適當性。由於兩二模型的通用性都未通過檢驗,我們接著再建立一個業式10git樓型,,利用充分訊息最大概似法(FIM)送行行計,結果發現FIM的設設方式符合業式logit樓型的要要。在FIM的估估之下,我們發現家户總所得、家户組成、與所得組成對於租買邏程及貨故透選都有顯著的影響。

關鍵鍵:租買選擇、貸款選擇、世代組成

Tenure choice and household composition are important factors in determining housing demand. If a household decides to own a dwelling unit, consequently, he has to consider whether and how much to borrow from a bank. Though there are some literatures in Taiwan considering the influence of tenure choice, household composition, and mortgage on housing demand, it is lack of a systematic analysis on the three factors. The purpose of this paper is using the 1996 Survey on Family Income and Expenditure of DGBAS and applying several levels of logit model to estimate the impacts of the above three factors on housing demand simultaneously. A conditional logit model and a multinomial logit model are estimated first and the Hausman tests are applied to check the effectiveness of the two logit models in describing the data. Since the IIA hypothese does not hold completely under the two types of specifications, we then extend to a nested logit model and apply the full information maximum likelihood (FIML) method to consider these three factors on housing demand. The results show that the model’s requirement of the nested logit specification is fulfilled under the FIML estimation. Moreover, it is found that household income, composition of generation, and income earners composition all playsignificant roles on the behavior of tenure choice and housing loan demand.
Key words: tenure choice, mortgage payment, composition of generation