購買能力、投機與大台北地區之房屋價格Affordability, Speculation and House Price in Taipei

本文嚐試以修正的支付能力(affordability概念詮釋近二十年來大台北地區住屋市場的價格行為。所謂修正的支付能力概念,保在傳統的房價與家戶所得數之外,再將抵押貸款利率、貸款成數以及家戶的抵押貸款支出佔預算的比率等因素納入考慮。所進行的統計分析,顯示大台北地區房價在研究期間的上漲,主要還是因為市民的支付能力,尤其是抵押融資與預算二因子的改善。
關鍵詞:支付能力、抵押貸款比率、抵押貸款成數、家戶抵押貨款支出成數、投機行為

The paper tries to explain the price behavior of the housing market in Taipei metropolitan area for the last two decades with modified concept of affordability that takes mortgage financing factors as well as household’s budget appropriation for housing expenditure into account. The purpose of the modification is to construct a variable that, to a large extent, can represent the changes of the economic fundamentals in a coherent way so that the influence of this variable on the price of houses can be more readily estimated and/or analyzed.The results of empirical studies show that the author’s hypothesis that the movements of the market price of houses in the period studied can be explained by the changes in people’s affordabilities and their speculative behavior is by and large confirmed.
Key words: affordability, mortgage financing factors, speculative behavior, market price