台商赴大陸投資與重大非經濟事件對我國房地產景氣的影響The Effects of Taiwan Corporation's Foreign Direct Investment in China and of Important Non-Economic Events on Taiwan Real Estate Cycles

自1991年開放台商赴大陸投資以來，大陸已成為我國廠商對外投資最主要的地區。由於台灣與大陸之間的敏感政治關係，使得台商對大陸的高度投資與經貿依賴可能引發的問題，特別引人注目。本文探討台商赴大陸投資對國內房地產景氣的效果，並分析近年來發生的重大社會與政治等非經濟事件對房地產市場的衝擊與影響。研究結果發現，除利率以外，各經濟變數與房地產景氣有顯著的正相關。預期通貨膨脹率和股價指數對房地產景氣的影響顯著，房地產市場在所得與家庭戶數增加、預期物價上漲與股市繁榮的期間有較佳的表現。利率的效果不顯著可能是因為變數的代表性不夠的關係。台商對大陸的投資對國內的房地產景氣有正面的效果，Stevens and Lipsey(1992)和Belderbos(1992)的資金排擠效果在本研究中並未得到證實。而近年來發生的重大事件，除兩國論不顯著外，中共試射飛彈、921地震、美國911事件、六萬元一坪的平價國宅、農地開放自由買賣和容積率管制措施等事件皆對房地產造成明顯的影響。
關鍵詞：大陸投資，房地產景氣，非經濟事件

Since Taiwan government allows domestic corporations to invest in China, which area soon become the major host country of Taiwan's multinational corporations. Because the sensitive political relationship between Taiwan and China, the potential problems come from the highly dependence of economics and intensive direct investments on China area is a subject worthy concerned. This paper investigates the effect of Taiwan corporations' foreign direct investment (FDI) in China on the cycles of domestic real estate market, and studies the impacts of important non-economic events, such as social and political events, on real estate market. The results suggest that economic variables, except interest rate, all influence real estate market significantly. During a period with high income, increasing family growth, expected inflation rate and flourishing stock market, real estate market has a better performance. The insignificance of effect of interest rate on real estate market might because of inadequateness of proxy variable. The FDI in China from Taiwan has a positive effect on the real estate market of home country. This result is contrary to Stevens and Lipsey (1992) and Belderbos (1992) who found a substitutive relation between investment abroad and at home. Of the non-economic events, only the effect of the announcement of “two countries” from postpresident Lee is not significant. The others, such as the China's maneuver, the earthquake on Sep. 21, the terrible attack of 911, the fair apartment priced 60 thousands per 36 square feet, the allowance of farm traded by non-farmer, and the capacity limit of building, all have significant impacts on real estate market.
Keywords: investment in China, real estate cycles, non-economic events