區域人口遷入台北都會區地點選擇之實證研究Locational Choice in Cross-regional Migration: An Empirical Study of the Taipei Metropolitan Area

本研究主要目的在探討就業市場及住宅市場發展對區域人口選擇遷入都會中心或衛星城鎮的影響，首先從個體決策觀點，建構一個解釋區域遷移者居住地點選擇的觀念性模式，並歸納相關的影響因素，最主要觀點係認為，遷入台北縣的人口除了受到台北縣本身就業市場及住宅市場因素的影響外，同時也會受到台北市的就業市場及住宅市場的影響。利用民國63至88年的總體時間序列資料，並以Almon(1965)之多項式延遲分析模型(polynomial distributed lagged model; PDL)實證估計的結果顯示，台北縣市的預期收入、住宅價格、公共支出及縣市間的可及性等變數，皆顯著影響區域遷移人口遷入台北縣的比率，支持了本研究的觀點。尤其台北市的住宅價格以及台北都會區捷運系統的興建，為使得遷入台北都會區者之居住地點轉向台北縣的重要因素。
關鍵詞：區位選擇、都會擴張、就業市場、住宅市場、公共支出、區域人口遷移

This research undertakes a study of cross-regional migration in metropolitan areas, and the effects of
the labor market and the housing market on locational choice. Based on the analytical model of migrants' locational choice, we believe that those migrating to Taipei County are not only affected by the labor and housing markets of the County itself, but also by those of Taipei City.
The empirical results from the polynomial distributed lagged model support our viewpoint that expected income, housing prices, public expenditure and the accessibility of Taipei City and Taipei County are found to have significant effects on migrants' locational choice. In particular, the housing prices of Taipei City and the construction of the Taipei Metropolitan area 'mass rapid transport' (MRT) system both play important roles in migrants' decisions to move into Taipei County.
Key words: locational choice, urban expansion, labor market, housing market, local public
expenditure, cross-regional migration