家戶遷移決策與路徑選擇之研究—台北縣市的實證研究Household Mobility Decision and Moving Path Choice —An Empirical Study of Taipei City and Taipei County

本文有兩個主要目的：首先是加入生命週期的因素，分析家戶的遷移決策。其次，進一步分析家戶受到內部生命週期類型的影響，以及考慮外在住宅市場環境的差異，家戶對於不同遷移路徑的選擇。本文採用1990年戶口及住宅普查台北縣、市的資料，以羅吉迴歸模型實證，分析台北市家戶的遷移決策，以及原居住在台北市的家戶如何選擇在台北市內遷移或遷移到台北縣的遷移路徑。結果顯示空間壓力不一定是引發家戶選擇遷移的主因，家戶生命週期類型所隱含的需求差異，可以解釋家戶的遷移行為。另外，台北市的家戶會因為空間方面的需求而選擇遷移到台北縣，若是為了通勤方便則選擇留在台北市，本文的結果有助於了解台北市與台北縣之間家戶的流動，以及住宅市場條件差異與市場區隔的意涵。
關鍵詞：遷移決策、家庭生命週期類型、羅吉迴歸模型

This study attempts to explore what kind of households would make mobility decision since the households must pay higher moving cost instead of staying at their existing houses. We further analyze why households choose different moving path under the constraint of housing market conditions. This empirical study employs a binary logistic regression model and uses a data set from "1990 Census of Population and Housing in Taipei". We make a comparison between the moving path from Taipei City to neighbor Taipei County areas and the moving path within Taipei City districts. The results are meaningful for the supply of housing market and public facility services.
Key words: mobility decision, life cycle type, logistic regression model