考慮不確定價格因素下，跨時選擇模型的房屋需求Interemporal Housing Demand Under Price Uncertainty

本文建立一個考愿價格不確定性因素,遺贈動機,和预期重出售下的跨時房屋需求模型。自有房屋的需求主要取決於(一)可利用的非資本所得(祖先的遗贈金额加上恆常所得诚掉最低道贈限值),(二)单位拥屋成本(當期房價加上预期的单位使用者成本),(三)預期重出售房價,(四)遺赠函數在效用函數的權重。我們發現預期未来价格上漲對目前房屋需求的影響取決於個人非資本所得是否变的有能力承雨項预期的任務支出(一)負擔子孫的预期购屋價格的一定比例,(二)負擔個人淨预期單位擁屋成本的一定比例。對於具有高额的非資本所得及低遺贈動機的個人而言,当预期未來价格上升時,其目前的自有房屋需求會增加。反之,對於具有低額的非資本所得及高遺赠動機的個人而言,當预期未來价格上升時,其目前的自有房屋需求會减少。
關鍵字:跨時房屋需求,價格不確定,遺贈動機,房屋重出售

This paper establishes an intertemporal housing demand model considering the price uncertainty,bequest motives, and resale of housing. The owner-occupied housing demand is determined by (1) the disposable non-capital income, (2) the unit cost of owning a house, (3) the expected resale price, (4) the weight of bequest function in the utility function.  The effect of expected future housing price growth on housing demand depends on whether the individual's non-capital income can afford the following expected expenditures: 1) a certain proportion of the expected offspring's future purchase price of housing, and 2) a certain proportion of expected unit cost of owning a house. If the future housing price is expected to rise, the owner-occupied housing demand of an indi vidual with a high non-capital income and a low bequest motive would be increased. On the other hand, the owner-occupied housing demand of an individual with a low non-capital income and a high bequest motive would be decreased.
Key words:  intertemporal housing demand, price uncertainty, bequest motive, resale of house