不動產有效稅率對於房地產市場價量影響之探討： 臺灣縣市級資料之應用The Impact of Effective Property Tax Rates on the Housing Market: Evidence from County-Level Data of Taiwan

本研究探討不動產有效稅率對於房地產市場價格與交易量之影響。我們利用2013至2018年不動產交易實價登錄與財政統計年報資料，推估各縣市各年度之不動產有效稅率，繼而估計不動產有效稅率對於房地產市場價格與交易量之影響。估計模型包括固定效果模型以及分量迴歸模型。估計結果顯示當不動產有效稅率提高，房地產市場之價格與交易量均會下降；分量迴歸的估計結果進一步顯示不動產有效稅率對於不同分位之價格與交易量皆有顯著影響，且對於分位越高之市場抑制效果越大。此結果說明不動產有效稅率的調整對於房地產市場的影響可望是有效且全面的。

關鍵詞：不動產有效稅率、房地產市場價格、房地產交易量、固定效果模型、分量迴歸。

This study examines the impact of the effective property tax rate on price and transaction volume in the housing market. We utilize the real estate transaction data drawn from the Real Estate Actual Transaction Price Inquiring System of the Ministry of the Interior and the Yearbook of Financial Statistics from 2013 to 2018 to estimate the effective property tax rates for each county and city in each year. Then we estimate the effect of the effective property tax rate on the price and transaction volume of the housing market. The estimation strategies include a fixed-effects model and a quantile regression model. The estimation results show that when the effective property tax rate increases, the price and transaction volume in the housing market will decrease. The results of the quantile regression model further show that the effective property tax rate has a significant impact on the price and transaction volume for different quantiles—the market restraint effect becomes greater among the higher quantiles. The findings of this paper suggest that increasing the effective property tax rate will be effective in cooling down the housing market activities.
Key words: Effective property tax rate, housing price, housing transaction volume, fixed effect model, quantile regression