誰從眾？何時從眾？以房價預測探究從眾行為的現象Who Conform to the Herd and When They do that? Explore the Phenomenon of Herding Behavior with Housing Price Forecast

研究參考Christoffersen & Stæhr(2019)以大膽預測(boldness)作為從眾行為之衡定，探討風險忍受度對從眾行為的影響，同時納入消息好壞與景氣循環作為調節變數，分析風險忍受度影響從眾行為之效果是否會因消息與景氣好壞等變異而有所差異。實證結果發現風險忍受度對從眾行為的反應並不顯著，而景氣榮景對從眾行為具正向影響，顯示景氣榮景條件下具從眾行為的機率比景氣蕭條下具從眾行為多2.065倍。更近一步發現，當景氣榮景時，有強化風險忍受度提升房價大膽之預測，弱化從眾行為的表現。此研究成果將有助於深化現有不動產投資行為的知識體系，提升理論模型之解釋能力。
關鍵詞：COVID-19、從眾行為、大膽預測、認知偏誤、實驗設計

ABSTRACT
This study uses Christoffersen & Stæhr (2019)’s boldness as a measure of herd behavior to explore the impact of risk tolerance on herd behavior, and at the same time incorporates the quality of news and the business cycle as moderating variables, analyzing whether the effect of risk tolerance on herding behavior will be different due to variations in news and the business cycle. The empirical results indicate that risk tolerance does not have a significant response to herd behavior, while prosperity has a positive effect on herd behavior, showing that the probability of having herd behavior under conditions of prosperity is 2.065 times more likely than having herd behavior. This study further finds that when the market is booming, it will strengthen the risk tolerance, increase the bold forecast of housing prices, and weaken the performance of herd behavior. The research results will help deepen the existing knowledge of real estate investment behavior and enhance the interpretation capabilities of theoretical models.
Key words: COVID-19, herding behavior, boldness, cognitive bias, experiment