建商新推個案銷售時機及方式之選擇Marketing Timing and Methods Adopted by Housing Developers Launching New Residential Projects

建商銷售策略包含銷售時機及銷售方式，隱含增加報酬及降低風險之經濟意涵。銷售時機分為新成屋及預售屋二種時機，係以遠期交易與期貨訂價理論作為評估依據；銷售方式分為建商委託代銷公司銷售或建商自售兩種方式，透過雙方機會成本與比較利益法則決定。實證結果顯示，上市櫃建商、高總銷及高主力總價建案，建商傾向預售及委託代銷公司銷售。另外，在景氣時期，建商委託代銷公司銷售預售屋，透過代銷公司相互競價接案，增加利潤；不景氣時期，建商以風險考量，雖以成屋銷售，但仍期望銷售風險由代銷公司埋單。本文建議，建商擬定銷售策略應在不同景氣時期依建案財務規劃及建案特徵權衡評估。在房市景氣時期，選擇代銷公司銷售預售屋以增加利潤；不景氣時期，選擇代銷公司銷售成屋以分散風險。
關鍵詞：預售屋、新成屋、代銷、自建自售、Logistic迴歸模型

ABSTRACT
Marketing timing and sales methods are strategies commonly used by housing developers to increase remuneration and lower risks. On the basis of forward contracts and futures price theories, the timing of sales can be divided into two categories: timing for selling new housing units and timing for selling presale housing units. Moreover, since the marketing methods involve consignment agencies or self-selling, the opportunity cost and comparative advantage of both methods are analyzed to determine which method to select. The results of this study reveal that developer companies that are over-the-counter entities listed on the market or have high total sales and expansive housing products are more likely to sell presale housing or contract consignment agencies. Under a prosperous economy, developers contract agencies to sell presale housing, thus increasing their profit through the competition among such agencies. However, in an economic recession, developers only sell existing houses to avoid risk, and expect the sales agencies to bear the risk. According to the study’s results, it is recommended that developers establish marketing strategies by evaluating the financial planning and characteristics of residential projects during different economic periods. When the housing market is prosperous, developers can contract agencies to sell presale housing units and increase their profit; when the market is in recession, the developers can contract agencies to sell existing houses to spread the risks.
Key words: presale housing, new housing, consignment agencies, self-building and self-selling, logistic regression model