從新冠肺炎疫情之發生分析國際住宅不動產市場Analyzing International Residential Real Estate Markets from the Outbreak of the COVID-19 Pandemic

本研究以台灣、美國、澳洲、英國、日本及南韓為研究對象，利用2009年1月至2022年3月房價指數、經濟成長率與新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情及其他總體經濟變數建立自我迴歸落遲模型進行分析。實證結果顯示，新冠肺炎爆發後，各國央行大力實施寬鬆貨幣政策的正面效果大於疫情所帶來的負面效果，因此各國的房市並未遭受衝擊，反而因資金充裕而走高。總體經濟因素包括消費者信心指數、通貨膨脹率、股價指數、利率與貨幣供給額皆對多國房價指數及經濟成長亦分別有不同程度之影響。這些實證結果可供各國政府未來在因應重大事件、制定相關貨幣與財政時之有效參考。
關鍵詞：新冠肺炎、貨幣寬鬆政策、房價指數、經濟成長率、自我迴歸落遲模型

This study applied the Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze how COVID-19 and the following monetary and fiscal policies influenced the real estate markets of different countries. We took Taiwan, the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea as examples for empirical analysis during a sample ranging from 2009 to 2022. Results show that the COVID-19 harmed the economy in some countries. However, under the vigorous implementation of the QE (Quantitative Easing,) policy, housing prices in these sampled countries tended to rise, showing that the positive effects of monetary and fiscal policies outweighed the negative effects of the pandemic. In addition, economic factors such as the consumer confidence index, inflation rate, stock price index, interest rate, and money supply significantly impacted housing prices in most countries. These empirical results provide a precious reference for the governments’ policy making as encountering substantial events or crises in the future.
Key words: COVID-19, QE policy, House Price Index, GDP, Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) model