台積電擴大設廠是否帶動周圍地區房價上漲？ 以台南科學園區為例Does TSMC’s Factory Expansion Plan Boost Housing Prices in Adjacent Areas? A Case Study of Tainan Science Park

本文探討台積電於2018年在台南科學園區擴大設廠後，是否帶動周圍地區住宅價格的上漲，並分析短期炒作效應與產業效應對於周圍地區住宅價格的影響。實證結果顯示台積電晶圓18廠於2018年動工後，周圍地區住宅價格逐年上漲，善化區住宅價格明顯較高且中高價位住宅價格漲幅最大。短期重複交易之炒作效應帶動價格上漲9.3%且高於台積電投資設廠的產業效應。差異中之差異法估計結果顯示台積電擴大設廠帶動善化區住宅價格漲幅達11.2%，且炒作效應帶動價格上漲幅度大於產業投資效應。
關鍵詞：科學園區、住宅價格空間分析、住宅市場炒作、差異中之差異法

This study analyzes the effect of TSMC’s factory expansion plan on housing prices in adjacent areas of Tainan Science Park. In particular, the housing flipping effect and the TSMC’s investment effect on housing prices are also discussed. The results indicate since TSMC started to build 18 Fab in 2018, housing prices in adjacent areas have been quickly increasing. Housing prices in Shanhua are higher than the other two areas. Housing price rising in mid-to-high-price houses is greater than that in other price levels. Short-term flipping in the housing market has become an important factor rising housing prices up to 9.3% and the figure is higher than the TSMC’s investment effect. the results of DID model show that TSMC’s factory expansion plan has been rising Shanhua’s housing prices up to 11.2%. The short-term flipping effect is also greater than the TSMC’s investment effect on housing prices.
Key words: science park, spatial analysis of housing prices, flipping in the housing market, difference-in-difference method