住宅不均與所得不均Effect of Liquidity Risk on the Value-at-Risk Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts

本研究關照臺灣經濟成長三十年期間所得不均與住宅不均現象，透過bivariate probit模型估計低所得(所得貧窮)和高住宅負擔(住宅貧窮)兩種狀態的聯合機率。結果發現，戶長年齡、性別、家戶規模與夫妻家戶，造成兩種貧窮機率彼此強化；戶長教育年數、有無房貸、租屋及城市家戶對兩種貧窮機率的影響各異。主要政策隱含是：一、所得與住宅貧窮現象的聯合機率增加集中在年老戶長家戶，顯示此族群屬於貧窮弱勢；二、房貸負擔造成的住宅貧窮， 同時對高、低所得水準的家庭帶來威脅。本研究除了提出新觀點補充既有文獻不足，並對住宅政策與福利規劃提供建議。
關鍵詞：住宅負擔、所得不均、聯合機率

This study examines the phenomenon of income inequality and housing inequality among Taiwan’s households over the past three decades by using bivariate probit models to estimate the joint probability of low income (income poverty) and high housing affordability (housing poverty). For the joint probability, the results show that the variables for the head’s age, gender, household size and intact couple households reinforce each other, while the head’s education, mortgage payment, renters and urban households play different roles. The policy implications derived from the findings are as follows. First, two types of poverty concentrate on households with elderly heads and thus they are the most vulnerable. Second, housing poverty induced by the mortgage payment burden could be a threat to either low or high income level households. This study not only finds new evidence on the joint outcome of income and housing inequality that is complementary to the existing literature, but also provides housing policy and welfare program suggestions.
Key words: housing affordability, income inequality, joint probability